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US Gross Domestic Product and Consumer confidence figures released yesterday. Down slightly according to the official figures but a glance at the meaningful historical data leaves you with another impression. Government statistics have been manipulated for years to give a rosy impression of the economy , inflation figures are manipulated via the consumer price index which systematically leaves out the most expensive elements such as food and energy.Selective data is used to paint a picture they want you to see. If you take a look at the graphs below, you get a different picture and one that shows that the economy has been headed down for quite a while. The writing has been on the wall for all to see.By the way,the Consumer confidence index is about as useful as looking at tealeaves in a cup as each person can make their own opinion without knowing the facts.

So let's take a look at the real data and see where we are headed.

Let's start with Outstanding Consumer Debt. This is the real result of the Credit bubble.



And now Household debt as % of GDP. Another illustration of how debt has become a bigger percentage of all the goods and services that the Economy produces.



Now the unemployment rate. There is only one direction that is heading.



Now the figures for long term unemployment indicating that it is becoming harder and harder to find a job once you lost one.



Now the Construction Industry. This was meant to be the source of all wealth as prices were supposed to keep on rising.





Ah, Equity, the source of all riches ! Hasn't  looked like that for a while.



Now the Government finances. Any accountant is going to tell you that rising expenditure and falling receipts only leads to bankrupcty.



What's in Uncle Sam's piggy bank ?



The trade balance figures reflect directly the outsourcing phase which destroyed the production base of the US. You export less and import more. You end up with credit fueled consumption. loss of Production Capital, Household savings, Tax receipts and the base to rebuild an economy after it goes in to inevitable bankruptcy.



This is a perfect illustration that supports the graph above. People have been losing highly paid manufacturing jobs as the latter have been sent to Asia and elsewhere.



Who's been writing bad checks over the years ? If this were your household would you be worried ?



Looks like investors and foreign governments have seen the danger for a while too.



To summarise. The Writing has been on the Wall for a long time. The Mea Culpa on behalf of Alan Greenspan and his cohorts in the Fed , Wall St and Government is a dog that just don't hunt. They say there are "Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics", but when you look at the overall picture instead of concentrating on meaningless indicators such as Consumer Price Indices and Consumer Confidence indices, then you will see it for what it really is.

Sources

prudentbear.com

research.stlouisfed.org/

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